A guest post by AKUS
Of course, the pundits have nothing to lose if it turns out that they are wrong and the Egyptian democrats decide that a war with Israel is a good thing, as supported by 98% of the Egyptian population.
On the right, we have pro-Israeli Jews with nothing to lose:
But the events in Cairo have exposed a schism between two longtime allies: neoconservative Republicans, who strongly advocate democracy and the George W. Bush “freedom agenda” around the globe, and Israelis, who fear that a popularly chosen Islamist regime could replace that of President Hosni Mubarak.
(Silly Israelis. All they have to fear is fear itself)
“Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu likened the situation in Egypt to that of Iran, making the menacing prediction that a post-Mubarak Egypt could join other “repressive regimes of radical Islam.” The sentiment has been widespread in the Israeli press – and roundly dismissed by prominent American Jewish neoconservatives, who do not see a takeover of the Egyptian government by the Muslim Brotherhood as inevitable.”
(Who could imagine Egypt going “radical Islam”? When have you ever seen something like that happen? Stop making “menacing” remarks, Mr. N.!!)
“There’s been an Israeli position which is, ‘We love Mubarak,’ that permeates their whole society, the political class,” said Elliott Abrams, who was deputy national security adviser in the last Bush administration. “That certainly differs from many of us in the pro-Israel camp in the United States.”
(Yes – the view from across the Potomac certainly looks more sensible than the view from across the Suez Canal).
And on the “left”, if a multi-billionaire can be “left”, we have George Soros, presumably writing for the Jews dedicated to Israel’s destruction at JStreet:
Revolutions usually start with enthusiasm and end in tears. In the case of the Middle East, the tears could be avoided if President Obama stands firmly by the values that got him elected.
(But of course, Israel shouldn’t be concerned if things work out a bit differently):
In free elections, the Brotherhood is bound to emerge as a major political force, though it is far from assured of a majority.
(What could derail democracy in Egypt?)
The main stumbling block is Israel.
(Of course. But fortunately, Israel has less influence in the US than in the past, which the wiser Jews in Washington know is its own good):
In reality, Israel has as much to gain from the spread of democracy in the Middle East as the United States has. But Israel is unlikely to recognize its own best interests because the change is too sudden and carries too many risks. And some U.S. supporters of Israel are more rigid and ideological than Israelis themselves. Fortunately, Obama is not beholden to the religious right, which has carried on a veritable vendetta against him. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is no longer monolithic or the sole representative of the Jewish community. The main danger is that the Obama administration will not adjust its policies quickly enough to the suddenly changed reality.
(Anyway, why not roll the dice and see what happens? I’ve got nothing to lose):
I am, as a general rule, wary of revolutions. But in the case of Egypt, I see a good chance of success.
(And if not, there’s always money to be made somewhere else …)
Meanwhile, on the right, everyone is in favor of democracy in the ME just as GWB wanted:
It’s amazing how smart all these people are.
But will they be sitting in the tanks, or putting on their gas masks on their children in their sealed rooms, or rushing to the bomb shelters when the fighting starts and the missiles fly in the Middle East?