1) At the INSS Orna Mizrahi looks at ‘Hezbollah’s War in the Service of Iran—Consequences for Lebanon’.
“In an interview with Bloomberg on October 25, Lebanon’s economy minister claimed that the cost of the damage so far is about $20 billion, while Prime Minister Mikati stated at the conference in Riyadh that the cost of the war is $8.5 billion. A similar figure was presented by the World Bank, which on November 14 published an initial estimate of the war’s cost until October 27. According to this report, the damage to Lebanon’s economy amounted to $5.1 billion, and the cost of rebuilding approximately 100,000 buildings alone is $3.4 billion. On November 11, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Anba quoted a study by the Lebanese research institute Information International, stating that an estimated 193,000 housing units were damaged, of which about 40,000 were completely destroyed, with most damage occurring in villages near the border with Israel. The total cost of rebuilding, which would take up to four years, is estimated at $4.25 billion.”
2) At the Alma Center, Sarit Zehavi and Tal Beeri explain why ‘The Ceasefire Between Israel and Lebanon Does Not Guarantee Peace and Does not Guarantee Security’.
“The second problematic clause deals with the production and smuggling of weapons, according to which “any sale, supply and manufacture of weapons or materials related to weapons to Lebanon shall be under the supervision and control of the Lebanese government.” However, Hezbollah is officially a member of the Lebanese government. Today, the minister responsible for the entrances and exits from Lebanon, including the border crossings into Syria and the Hariri International Airport, is a Hezbollah member.”
3) Ron Ben Yishai gives his analysis of the ceasefire agreement at Ynet.
“What happens next time Shiite villagers return to their destroyed homes, and Hezbollah “assists” in rebuilding by installing weapons depots, observation posts and firing positions beneath and within the structures?
Under the emerging agreement, Israel would need to file a complaint with the international committee, led by the U.S. general and his peers from Britain, France and an Arab state. The committee would demand evidence, forcing Israel to disclose its intelligence-gathering methods and prove the violations weren’t merely innocent construction.
Lacking its own enforcement mechanism, the committee would then turn to the Lebanese Armed Forces—many of whose soldiers and commanders are Shiites—and UNIFIL, asking them to compel Hezbollah to dismantle the violations identified by Israel. It is highly unlikely these entities will be more effective now than they were between 2006 and 2023. Hezbollah will likely continue to intimidate them and act with impunity across Lebanon, leaving Israel to repeatedly seek committee approval and prove its claims while UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army fail to act.”
4) WINEP reports on ‘Iraqi Militias Downscaling Their Anti-Israel Actions’.
“On November 18, 2024, the Israeli minister of Foreign Affairs, Gideon Saar, sent a letter to the current rotating president of the UN Security Council expressing concern over increased attacks by Iran-backed militias in Iraq targeting Israel. In his letter, Saar held the Iraqi government responsible for those attacks and emphasized Israel’s right to defend itself if the Iraqi state was unwilling or unable to control armed groups launching drones and cruise missiles at Israel.”
5) The Institute for Science and International Security reports on ‘The Islamic Republic’s Work on Pharmaceutical Based Agents’.
“The rise of the widespread use of easy-to-operate drones has increased the risk of lethal and incapacitating pharmaceutical-based chemical weapons being dispersed in this new manner. The most immediate concern in the Middle East is that the Islamic Republic or its proxies would use such weapons. […]
This report discusses multiple Iranian security complexes that have been preparing production of fentanyl and medetomidine based incapacitating and lethal agents. These complexes have been working on pillars of producing those weapons: large-scale cost-efficient synthesis of the compounds with maximum potency, evaluating a stable chemical mixture based on those agents that can be aerosolized using a propellant, and developing the delivery of the agents through grenades, bullets, or drones.”
