Weekend long read

1) At the INSS Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni ask ‘Time to End UNIFIL’s Mandate in Southern Lebanon?’.

“During the war between Israel and Hezbollah, the total failure of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to help prevent Hezbollah’s military entrenchment in southern Lebanon was exposed. Despite UNIFIL’s presence, Hezbollah managed to organize militarily in the area on a large scale. In light of this, the question of the usefulness of UNIFIL’s continued presence has become more pressing. The host country, Lebanon, is seeking to extend the mandate, which expires this coming August. However, voices in Israel and the United States are calling for its termination.”

2) Six months into the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Tal Beeri and Dr Zoe Levornik of the Alma Center provide ‘Analysis of IDF Strikes in Lebanon’.

“…based on the total number of Israeli strikes in Lebanese territory since the ceasefire began, it is evident that Hezbollah operatives continue to be present and active in southern Lebanon (including operatives from the Radwan Unit), with an emphasis on the area south of the Litani River. It is also apparent that many Hezbollah military sites remain unaddressed by the Lebanese army, despite statements and publications by the Lebanese government and military claiming that they have taken control of approximately 90 percent of these sites south of the Litani River.”

3) The Long War Journal reports that “Syria’s captagon industry continues to flourish despite new regime crackdowns”.

“Although security officials continue to seize shipments of the drug, its production continues. One reason for this could be that major drug kingpins in the Assad era have been welcomed into the new government. For instance, the week he entered Damascus, Sharaa met with local armed faction leaders to discuss their integration into the new Syrian army. Present was Imad Abu-Zureiq, an influential captagon kingpin who the US government sanctioned in 2023 for using his militia to “sell contraband, operate protection rackets, and smuggle drugs in Jordan, while also recruiting directly for [Syrian military intelligence.]””

4) At the Middle East Forum, Edmund Fitton-Brown explains ‘How the International Community Got Yemen Wrong’.

“The international community of do-gooders is more cohesive and effective at lobbying than many people realize. I later watched them chip away at the Security Council until it introduced a humanitarian exemption to all of its sanctions regimes, including the one against ISIS. This community also has a number of overwhelming prejudices, which are broadly anti-Western and specifically hostile to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Pressure groups like Oxfam and Amnesty teamed up with the human rights community and reinforced the humanitarian lobby, which was led by the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).”

5) Professor Lewi Stone and Dr Tom Simpson present a new study of Gaza Strip casualty statistics: ‘Death Toll in the Gaza War: Erroneous Claims of Underestimation’.

“Recent years have seen increased interest in multi-list capture-recapture (CR) statistical modelling for estimating population sizes. This Research Note applies a sophisticated CR method to estimate unrecorded deaths in the ongoing Gaza war. Another recent CR analysis by Jamaluddine et al. (JEA) claimed that the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) underestimated the actual death toll by 41%, implying that tens of thousands of fatalities were not included. They estimated that, during the first three months of the war, the true death toll was 2.3 times that reported by the MoH.”

6) NGO Monitor reports on how ‘Hamas Influences UK Funded Gaza Cash Programme’.

“UK government documents reveal that Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) officials were aware of Hamas involvement and the significant diversion risks in Gaza cash-assistance programs. Yet, the FCDO pressed ahead providing millions of pounds in funding to such a mechanism. The project was implemented by UNICEF, in coordination with the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Social Development (MoSD).  It appears, based on UK and UN documentation, that this support is ongoing, even after Hamas’ October 7 massacre and war in Gaza.”

(more background to that topic here)

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1 Comment

  1. says: Grimey

    Diversity is such a woke force in the UK that its civil service has allowed itself to be infiltrated by Islamic idealism – to the extent that biased decisions by disgraced international quangos are adopted – always provided that they are anti-Israel. This situation shows that IDE is an evil force and that the UK should go back to old-fashioned nationalism.

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