Weekend long read

1) Writing at the Jerusalem Post, Jonathan Spyer analyses the situation in Syria.

“So, in just eight months of Sunni Islamist rule in Syria, already three large-scale incidents of sectarian violence have taken place. The three incidents have several factors in common: In all cases, the violence was directed by Sunni Islamists against one of Syria’s minority communities. And, perhaps yet more significantly, in all cases, the perpetrators were linked, directly or tangentially, to the current ruling authorities in Damascus.”

2) At the JCFA, Yoni Ben Menachem explains how ‘Hizbullah Pursues a Policy of Brinkmanship’.

“According to Israeli security officials, Hizbullah’s most significant struggle is no longer against Israel or Lebanon’s central government, but increasingly within the Shiite community itself. The organization’s arsenal functions not only as a military tool but also as a complex political and social mechanism serving three main purposes: sustaining the image of “resistance” against Israel, consolidating Hizbullah’s influence over state institutions, and maintaining exclusive control over Shiite representation.”

3) At the JISS, Yossi Kuperwasser and Ilan Evyatar discuss ‘Why Recognizing a Palestinian State Now Is a Dangerous Mistake’.

“Neither France nor the UK has placed enforceable conditions on Hamas. Macron’s aside about demilitarization is a diplomatic fig leaf; Starmer’s references to hostages and political exclusion are aspirations, not red lines. From Israel’s standpoint, this is a dangerous omission. Recognition without dismantling Hamas’s military infrastructure or removing it from power grants the group both a symbolic and strategic victory: statehood in all but name, while living to fight another day.”

4) Emanuele Ottolenghi analyses ‘Iran’s web of terror and propaganda: The case of Al Mustafa University’ at The Long War Journal.

“The accusation that Iranian-trained Argentinian clerics have links to terrorism may seem unusual. However, in fact, it is consistent with Iran’s efforts to export its revolutionary message abroad. Iran is both a clerical regime and the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism. The clergy takes the lead in giving religious endorsements, moral justifications, guidance, and leadership when it comes to terrorism.”

5) Israel’s MFA provides ‘Key Factual and Legal Aspects of the Iran-Israel Hostilities, June 13-24, 2025’.

“On June 13, 2025, Israel initiated Operation ‘Rising Lion’ (the ‘Operation’) to neutralize the existential and imminent threat posed by the Iranian regime’s nuclear weapons program, as well as the threat posed by its ballistic missiles program and other military activities against Israel.

The following paper presents key factual and legal aspects of the Operation, including the broader strategic and operational context in which the operation took place; facets of the ongoing armed conflicts between Israel and Iran and its proxies; Israel’s adherence to international law; and Iran’s systemic violation of the international law.”

 

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