1) At the Spectator, Jonathan Spyer explains ‘Why Hezbollah miscalculated – and Israel attacked’.
“The last war between Israel and the Iran-supported Shia Islamist Hezbollah organisation came to an official end on August 14, 2006. UN Resolution 1701, which ended the war, forbade Hezbollah from any armed presence south of the Litani river.
For most of the intervening years, Israel pursued a cautious, even hesitant policy on the border. It made no serious attempt to intervene as Hezbollah rapidly brushed aside the terms of 1701 and the UN force detailed with implementing it, and began to construct a fearsome, open military capacity extending down to the Blue Line of withdrawal and the border fence.
Without the 7 October attacks from Gaza, and Hezbollah’s decision to join Hamas’s war effort on October 8, it is likely that this situation would have been maintained.”
2) At the Modern War Institute, Patrick Sullivan, John Spencer and John Amble discuss ‘Israel’s Campaign against Hezbollah and the Fight for Southern Lebanon’s Tunnels’.
“Today, analysts believe Hezbollah has used the years since 1980, and especially since the 2006 war, with the aid of state actors like North Korea and Iran, to build hundreds of kilometers of tunnels. This network includes single contiguous tunnels as long as forty-five kilometers and some tunnels connecting to Hezbollah’s stronghold in the Beqaa Valley, near the Syrian border, and to Beirut. Hezbollah tunnels, like those of Hamas, range from just below the surface underneath buildings to over a hundred meters deep.”
3) At WINEP, Matthew Levitt explains why ‘After Hezbollah’s Miscalculations, It Has Lost Much of Its Power’.
“Now, with the bombing of Hezbollah’s military command headquarters and death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, it is no exaggeration to say that the Hezbollah of two weeks ago no longer exists. And since Hezbollah was the backbone of Iran’s network of militant proxies, its so-called Axis of Resistance, Iran’s strategy of arming and deploying proxy groups throughout the region is suddenly at risk as well.
Nobody (outside Israeli military and intelligence headquarters) saw this coming, certainly not Hezbollah, which believed its massive arsenal of rockets and missiles served as a deterrent against an Israeli attack on its forces in Lebanon. Last year, three months before Oct. 7, Mr. Nasrallah threatened Israel in no uncertain terms, “You will be returned to the Stone Age if you go to war.””
4) At the FDD, David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi discuss ‘The impact of Israeli operations on Hezbollah’s organizational structure’.
“The unceasing blows have put Hezbollah on its back foot, inflicting losses on the group that may not be easily replaced. Since June 2024, Israel has conducted a series of targeted strikes that have severely weakened the Hezbollah’s command structure, delivering a significant blow to the organization. What follows is a breakdown of the officials assassinated, those who remain, and the impact on the organization and its durability.”
5) MEMRI documents reactions to the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah.
“The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s secretary-general for more than 30 years, in a September 27, 2024 Israeli airstrike is being viewed by anti-resistance-axis politicians and journalists, both inside and outside Lebanon, as a rare historic and “golden opportunity” to remove Hizbullah from the equation and rebuild Lebanon. This opportunity, they stressed, must be seized quickly before the terror organization recovers and “Lebanon is lost forever.””
